Framing the future by learning from the shocks of 2020

Bushfires, floods and the COVID-19 pandemic, the shocks of 2020-21 can in many ways be viewed as a microcosm of the energy transition – a time when old rules, ideas and practices were suddenly revealed as no longer stable or sufficient and Australians had to adjust their ideas of what was possible, what their needs and priorities were and how they live and work. There are important lessons to be learned from these events, how decision makers in the energy system responded to them and the subsequent adaptation of consumers and the system itself during what has been a convulsive and challenging 18 months. How might we use what we have collectively experienced to deliver a future in which consumer needs, expectations and values are central to decision making, energy is cleaner and more affordable and system security and reliability are delivered?

Our webinar series will examine these questions, applying this framing across three key aspects of a system that is itself undergoing rapid and convulsive transformation.

Further Webinar Insights

Webinar One: Social Practice and Consumer Behaviour  

To create a future energy system that meets the needs of consumers safely, securely, reliably and at the lowest possible cost requires deep understanding of how Australians will use, produce, store and share electricity, now and into the future.

Our first Foresighting Forum webinar revealed the essential emerging consumer trends that leaders in the sector need to be aware of to forecast and plan for the energy transition. What developments in how everyday Australians think about and use energy have implications for the future system? How do the ways consumers imagine their future energy use differ from some of the common industry assumptions that we see? And how can we work together to make sure we better understand changing social practices and make space for genuine engagement with consumers? 

System flexibility, security and fitness for purpose are not primarily about technical or regulatory responses – they are about people and their social practices. It is inherently risky to make assumptions about what consumers need or how they will behave in the future unless you engage deeply to examine real-life experience and understand the drivers underlying certain behaviours across a variety of conditions. How do we integrate this kind of work into our plan for the transition?

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Webinar Two: System Resilience

Our second webinar will explore how empowered communities and citizens at a local level are critical for surviving and recovering from shocks and crisis events and moving towards a more resilient future. We will use new research that we conducted in East Gippsland over the course of a year after the catastrophic bushfires of 2019/20 as the basis for a discussion around how we can and we should better serve communities and respond to their needs, in times of crisis, recovery and beyond as part of a resilient future system.

Resilience experts speak of the need to “build back better” rather than simply replacing what was in place before a destructive event occurred. This involves a smarter approach to infrastructure but also things that are more intangible: community connection, understanding the needs and aspirations of local people and the things they need to live their lives. It also involves a level of ongoing planning and engagement from energy system participants so that best-practice responses can be deployed when crisis events suddenly occur.

Why you should join us:

Attendees will be exposed to a generative discussion around the importance of moving beyond emergency response and recovery based on hardening infrastructure and towards a model of resilience that is more about resilient communities and resilient people. How can different system participants provide tools, support and engagement that positions them well to deliver better experiences for people and communities during times of unfolding crisis, knowing that extreme weather events are likely to play an increasing role going forward? When can this be integrated into the plan for the future energy system?

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Webinar Three: System Design

Covid-19 highlighted the limits of our ability to see the fullness of the future from current vantage points and via ‘business as usual’ processes. As a society we had lost our preparedness for a global pandemic because we could no longer imagine one happening. Then it did. The current situation with our energy transition contains striking similarities.

This webinar will explore how we, as collaborative and future-focused system leaders, can position ourselves to envision and co-create the whole-of-system change consumers want and need. Creating change at a system level is hard and requires the ability to see the totality of the thing you are working towards – the desired future state – and agree on a shared vision for its transformation.

If we can find new ways to imagine the system the rewards will be significant, allowing us to move from relying on investment in long-lived generation, network and storage assets to a future system where we unlock flexibility at scale by rewarding when and how consumers use, generate and store energy at a local level.

At present, the way our energy system is set up makes this extremely difficult. As the Energy Security Board prepares to wind down Australia has market bodies responsible for rule framing and rule enforcement, system and network operation and maintenance. It has an Integrated Systems Plan that makes medium term assessments of what infrastructure will be needed and where.

No single actor in the current system possesses all the tools, information or capability to see and address the whole of the system and the whole of the challenge. New and radical forms of collaboration will be needed to move beyond the necessary and important, but ultimately insufficient, work of incremental improvement.

What structural, attitudinal or other changes might help us collectively increase our ambitions for the future system and meet the challenge of being imagining, visualizing and working towards towards a preferred future?

Why you should join us:

This will be the start of a much-needed conversation. How can we push the limits of our current system to allow more radical foresighting? How can we create processes, forums and even new actors who can see the whole of the necessary change and catalyse others in that direction? How can we work across jurisdictions, organisations, roles and responsibilities to think more ambitiously — changing our ideas about what is possible and breaking the shackles of convention to deliver something better?

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Join us on the journey

 The aim of our webinar series is to embark on a journey, starting conversations and driving action to showcase the many benefits of ensuring the energy system we are transitioning to is consumer-centric. As we wrap on our last webinar we hope to be in a good position for a COVID safe return of our face-to-face Foresighting Forum in February 2022, where we will examine the “End State”; what will the energy future actually look like in the year 2040, and the pathways to working backwards from there to achieve the affordable, abundant and clean energy future consumers tell us they expect.

Foresighting Forum 2022

February 16 and 17

Venue TBC